History is a better guide to market cycles than economics – ignore the longer term trends that drive markets at your peril. So says Peter Spiller, a former Cazenove partner who has the distinction of being the UK’s longest serving investment trust manager, in my latest Money Makers podcast. Although largely unknown to the wider public, Capital Gearing Trust, the trust he has run since 1982, has delivered a compound annual return of 15%, 4% per annum more than the UK stock market, over 34 years. So why is he now more defensively positioned than he has ever been? Why does he think that inflation, not deflation, is now the greater risk?